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THE CROCODILE TEAR OF EGYPT AND THE GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM (GERD)

THE CROCODILE TEAR OF EGYPT AND THE GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM (GERD)

(By Engidashet Bunare & Shiferaw Lulu, May 2020)

I. Introduction

The media and Egyptian professionals are trying to influence with one-sided view and deceive the international community.  The purpose of the propaganda and lies that are taking place internationally by the Egyptian politicians and professionals is to mislead the international community and countries about the GERD for getting biased support and to pressurize Ethiopia to sign an agreement that only satisfies Egypt’s interest at the expense of over 100 million people of Ethiopia. In addition, Egypt is trying to use the GERD issue to shadow and divert political and diplomatic efforts from the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) that requests a reasonable and equitable share of the Nile water among the basin states.

In addition to its hoodwink, Egypt has been and is supporting political opponents, religious radicals and ethnic radicals to destabilize upstream countries in order not to have peace in their countries to develop their nation, which inevitably consider using of their water. 

It has to be clear that the population of the basin countries is increasing and the demand for water supply, irrigation and power generation will definitely amplify. Whatever lies and deceptions are implemented, no one can stop the people and the countries that originate the Nile water from using the water from their backyard. It has to be clear that these countries will not continue under poverty and see their people starve while Egypt is enjoying prosperity.

We Ethiopians need to bring the facts to the light and try to stop Egyptian professionals, scientists, journalists and politicians from deceiving the international community.

II. The Nile Water and the GERD

It has to be clear to all the international community and the Ethiopians at large that there is no any significant contribution to the Nile water either from Egypt or the Sudan. However, these two countries have shared 100% of the water among themselves. Ethiopia is contributing 84.1% of the Nile water and has zero shares and the rest of the countries contribute 15.9% and have zero shares from the Nile water.

Egypt wants to keep this unreasonable share of water and keep the upstream countries to support Egypt's prosperity, while living in poverty. Egypt has been using the World Bank and the other developed nations not to provide loans or grants towards the development of the water from the Nile basin.  As a result of this, the upstream countries obliged to live under poverty and famine.

Ethiopia contributes 84.1 % per cent of the waters for the Nile river system (94.5 Bm3). The Blue Nile 57.1 % per cent (54 Bm3), Baro-Akobo (Sobat) 14.3 % per cent (13.5 Bm3), Tekezze (Atbara) 12.7 % per cent (12 Bm3) - while the contribution from the Equatorial Lakes region is only 15.9 % per cent (15 Bm3), but the contribution from Ethiopia other than Blue Nile is a total of 27 % percent from Baro-Akobo (Sobat) 14.3 % and Tekezze (Atbara) 12.7 % respectively which is almost double of the contribution from White Nile or the Equatorial Lakes region.

The main water resources problem in Ethiopia is that the major rivers of the country have trans-boundary nature. 70% of Ethiopia's water resources that are contributing to the 84.1% of the Nile River flow are found in the three sub-basins of the Ethiopian side of the Nile Basin namely; Abay (Blue Nile), Tekeze-Mereb and Baro-Akobo and whereas the population is no more than 40 per cent of the country.  On the other hand, the water resource available in the east and central river basins is only 30 per cent whereas the population in these basins is over 60 per cent.

Out of the total 84.1% Nile water contribution of Ethiopia, the GERD is being constructed on Blue Nile (Abbay) river which is contributing 57.1% of the Nile River flow. This Abbay River Basin covers 44% of the surface water source and 26% of the population of Ethiopia.

According to the 1959 agreement between Sudan and Egypt, the Nile water is divided as follows: 55.5 billion cubic meters to Egypt, 18.5 billion cubic meters to Sudan, and 10 billion cubic meters to account for evaporation and seepage. The Al-Jazeera documentary (The GERD, under the title “How big is Ethiopia’s new dam”?) clearly showed that based on the Colonial treaties the Nile’s water shared by Egypt 66%, by Sudan 22%, by Ethiopia 0%, and 12% lost to evaporation.

We would like to make clear that the volume of High Aswan Dam 162 billion m3 is more than double of the GERD volume of 75 billion m3. Toshka and El-Salam huge projects of Egypt that have a significant effect on the water rights of the upstream countries have estimated investment of about 100 Billion USD in 2017 which is about 20 times the estimated construction cost of the GERD. It has to be noted that Egypt has not consulted any of the upstream countries while developing these projects. In addition to the Nile water, Egypt has groundwater resources in the Nile Valley and Delta, the western desert and Sinai. The largest groundwater deposit is the giant Nubian sandstone aquifer underneath the eastern part of the African Sahara, which is shared between Egypt and four other countries. It contains over 200,000 billion m3 of non-renewable water in total that can serve for thousands of years. The aquifer underlying the Nile Valley and Delta has a total capacity of 500 billion m3 (200 and 300 billion m3 respectively). Egypt has to learn a lesson form “The Libyan Great Man-made River (GMMR) Project, the eighth wonder of the world” embarked by Muammar Qadhafi in 1983” which supplies 6,500,000 m³ of fresh water per day to the cities of Tripoli, Benghazi, Sirte and others.

In addition, Egypt because of its unique location has sea outlet both on the Mediterranean and the Red-Sea that makes desalinated water available both from the east and north of Egypt. Egypt is well aware of the recent technological advances that have significantly decreased the production costs of desalinated water.

The GERD is located in Ethiopia; on the Blue Nile River about 20 km upstream from the Ethiopia-Sudan Border. The GERD is for hydropower which is non-consumptive use and does not stop the flow of the river. The Dam is currently under construction; where totally about 73 % of the project both civil and electro-mechanical work is completed. The GERD has two power plants with capacities of 3750 MW and 2250 MW or total installed capacity of 6000 MW that could generate average energy of 15,692 GWh per year.

GERD is an additional storage dam both for Egypt and Sudan, and also that save water that is lost by evaporation in the desert from Aswan High Dam and the reservoirs in the Sudan. It also serves as a silt trap for the dams in Sudan and Egypt. The GERD specifically saves Sudan from the annual flooding of thousands of irrigable area and help to reclaim its irrigable lands that optimize irrigation in Sudan. The GERD also helps to increase the rainfall in the Ethiopian highland as a result of the evaporation from the reservoir that will contribute to the Nile flow. Based on these facts, to build a dam on Blue Nile in Ethiopia is not a new issue at all. It was already considered as an option in the 19th century by the British, mainly because of the lower levels of evaporation, sediment control and regulated flow.

It is clear that GERD has no significant effect as compared to its remarkable benefits both for Egypt and Sudan. It has to be clear that the GERD is being constructed under zero percent water share of Ethiopia. Now what Ethiopia should negotiate is not about the GERD, it has to raise the issue of sharing the Nile water equitably among all the basin states.

III. Cooperation Efforts of the Basin Countries on Equitable Use of Nile Water

Based on the initiative of Ethiopia, a series of the ‘Nile 2002 conferences’ that started in 1993 continued up to 2002. This cooperative effort with the support of the international community paved the way for the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) established in 1999. A Shared Vision Programme (SVP) supported cooperation through promoting collaborative action, and trust intended to build a strong foundation for regional cooperation, of which the goal was the creation of an enabling environment for investments and action on the ground (NBI, 1999).  

The NBI established a secretariat in Uganda and two subsidiary action programmes (SAPs) in the Eastern Nile (based in Addis Ababa) ENSAP (The Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program) currently includes Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan and the Nile Equatorial Lakes region (in Kigali). NELSAP (The Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program): The Nile Equatorial Lakes region includes the six countries in the southern portion of the Nile Basin: Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda, as well as the downstream riparian states Egypt and Sudan.

The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) 1995-2011 resulted in the development of the Cooperative Framework (CFA) and the establishment  of  the  UNDP  D3  project  which started  the  negotiations  for  a  River  Nile  Cooperative  Framework  Agreement  in  1997; The  D3  project  had main activities  of which was major for the development of the Cooperative framework agreement (CFA).  Accordingly, the Panel of Experts (POE) formulated cooperative framework and approved by Council of Ministers (COM).  The CFA (2009) adopts the seven most relevant factors for determining equitable and reasonable utilization from Article 6(1) of the 1997 United Nations Watercourses Convention.

The  Nile-COM  with  the  exception  of Egypt  and  Sudan  absent,  agreed  and  resolved  that  the  CFA  is  a  clean  text  ready  for  presentation  to  the riparian states for signature.

The CFA signing / “Entebbe Agreement”:- Ethiopia,  Rwanda,  Tanzania  and  Uganda  signed  the Entebbe  Agreement  on  the  day  it  was  opened  for signature on the May 14, 2010.  Kenya signed on the May 19, 2010; Burundi signed on the February 28, 2011. After signing the Entebbe Agreement the four countries Ethiopia; Rwanda; Tanzania and Uganda have ratified the agreement.

Egypt has become stumbling block not to sign the CFA and yet without reached agreement on water allocation, it considers any reduction of the Nile water quantity level as a national security issue. Egypt did not want to sign the CFA which would have been a spring board for all basin states to reach to an agreement on how to share and manage the Nile water. It has to be clear that Egypt’s rigid position will let the Nile basin state countries to take their own unilateral action, which will ultimately be a nightmare for Egypt.

After four years Egypt’s position not to sign the CFA and the tensions between Cairo and Addis Ababa over the GERD project, the three Eastern Nile countries acceded to a Declaration of Principles on 6 March 2015 that lead them to agree on the guidelines of the filling and operation of the GERD. “Ethiopia as the owner of the GERD will commence first filling of the GERD in parallel with the construction of the Dam in accordance with the principles of equitable and reasonable utilization and the causing of no significant harm as provided on the Declaration of Principles (DoP).” In spite of the deception of Egypt, that is what Ethiopia is doing currently- “first filling of the GERD in parallel with the construction of the Dam”. Basically Egypt’s treachery is to use the DoP as scapegoat to gain time Ethiopia not to capitalize on the CFA and its diplomatic efforts to bring back Egypt and Sudan to the table of negotiation to sign the CFA.

IV. Deception mechanisms of Egypt

According to the 1959 agreement, the Nile waters were divided as follows: 55.5 billion cubic meters to Egypt, 18.5 billion cubic meters to Sudan, and 10 billion cubic meters to account for evaporation and seepage. Cairo ignores the fact that the agreement was made without considering the share and the ownership of the upstream countries on the Nile Water, even Ethiopia that contributes 84.1 % of its water.

The Al-Jazeera documentary (The GERD, under the title “How big is Ethiopia’s new dam”?) clearly showed that based on the Colonial treaties the Nile’s water shared by Egypt 66%, by Sudan 22%, by Ethiopia 0%, and 12% lost to evaporation.

Ignoring the fact on the ground, Egypt is trying to deceive the international community through different publications and media outlets. One of the funny proposals is the idea of developing a compensation mechanism by German research Centre Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP Comments, Compensation rather Than Mediation March, 2020) as an option to resolve the conflict, which is completely unacceptable proposal. It considers Ethiopia to live in darkness and wait for donations from the hands of donors and live on donations that totally undermines the sovereignty of Ethiopia and its right to use its own natural resource. The experts have not tried to say anything about the poverty and the misery in Ethiopia and the need to develop its economy; instead their concern is to try to show that Egypt is going to be affected while no significant measurable impact is going to come from the GERD.  The GERD’s benefit is more than the concerns of its impact both for Egypt and Sudan.

The compensation mechanism and the propaganda that is taking place that the Grand Renaissance Dam is intended to have a storage capacity of approximately 74 billion m3 (BCM) leaving only 10 BCM to flow downstream countries is a deceiving mechanism to pressurize Ethiopia by the international community to yield to Egypt’s one sided interest. It has to be clear that the filling of the dam is not for stopping the Blue Nile flow as Egyptians try to deceive. The dam is built with bottom outlet and culverts that allow the required amount of flow to Egypt while filling the GERD during high flood season. Since it is power generation dam, once the dam is filled, in order to optimize the power generation Ethiopia has to release the water to operate the turbines.  Thus Egypt and Sudan will enjoy constant regulated flow all over the year without risk of sedimentation and flooding. So the construction of the GERD has marvelous benefit for both countries.

In addition, the Al-Jazeera documentary and the SWP tried to show when Ethiopia fills the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in 7 years Egypt could lose 20 to 25 % about 12 billion m3 of its total annual water budget, which does not reflect the reality. The reality shows that its temporary impact until the dam is filled is much less than 5%. Once the dam is filled the flow will come to its normality and Egypt and Sudan will enjoy constant flow. Moreover, it has to be clear that the High Aswan Dam not only more than double of GERD volume but more than the annual surface runoff of all the waters of Ethiopia (which is about 122 billion cubic meters), that has a capacity to compensate the deficit during the filling of the GERD. 

Egypt is not only deceiving the international community, but it is also using the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region, to put a new pressure on Ethiopia. Out of the MENA countries only two (Egypt and Sudan) are the Nile basin countries, the other MENA counties have no interest in irrigation, navigation and/or hydropower on Nile basin.  However, the action of the Arab League shows that, the leaders of MENA countries are maneuvered by Egypt’s leaders.

It is easy to see that the Arab League countries are acting blindly as MENA without analyzing the economic, political and diplomatic impacts on their individual country. This type of support is similar to the support provided to Mussolini to invade Ethiopia by the Europeans to present Ethiopia as an altar-sheep for Hitler, which finally backfired to them.  Unprincipled support has an unexpected consequence.

V. What does Ethiopia need to Do?

It has to be clear that Ethiopia will never and ever agree on 0% (Zero) share while it is contributing the 84.1 % of the Nile flow.  Egypt’s position that, Ethiopia and other riparian countries to agree on 0% share of water is non-acceptable by any measurement and must stop their lies and divisive acts. Ethiopia and the upstream basin states are entitled to an equitable and reasonable share in the beneficial uses of the water resources of the Nile River system.

In 1957 the Emperor Haile-Selassie has sent the following clear message to Egypt and Sudan that holds true all the time.  “Ethiopia has the right and the obligation to exploit its water resources of the Empire, for the benefit of the present and future generations of its citizens, in anticipation of the growth in population and its expanding needs. Therefore, reassert and reserve now and for the future, the right to take all such measures in respect of its water resources, namely those waters providing so nearly the entirety of the volume of the Nile.”

We would like to make clear that Egypt’s concern is not the GERD, but it is the fear that the Economic growth in Ethiopia may in the future confront the Egypt’s position in Africa and the Middle East and the GERD will shift the power balance in favor of Ethiopia. This was reflected in 2009 by the lobby that was made to the environmentalists to deceive the ADB and other financers to stop Ethiopia from constructing hydroelectric power on Gibe River (Gibe III) that has no any relation to the Nile water.

If Egypt is genuine it has many options to augment its water requirement rather than acting negatively to the development of the basin countries. These are:

  • Use the Aswan Dam’s live storage reserve i.e. 131 billion cubic metres is enough to offset a scenario where the Renaissance Dam is filled in planned about 6 years;
  • Egypt has ground water resources in the Nile Valley and Delta, the western desert, and Sinai. The largest ground water deposit is the giant Nubian sandstone aquifer underneath the eastern part of the African Sahara, and is shared between Egypt and four other countries. It contains over 200,000 billion m3 of non-renewable water in total that can serve for thousands of years. The aquifer underlying the Nile Valley and Delta has a total capacity of 500 billion m3 (200 and 300 billion m3 respectively).
  • Transform the Water Policy for preventing users from cultivating water intensive crops such as: rice and cotton, etc.,
  • Improve water demand management; i.e. improve irrigation methods; recycling (Reuse of Wastewater and Agricultural drainage water) and ;
  • Desalination of Sea Water; Egypt has sea outlet both on Mediterranean and the Red-Sea that makes desalinated water available both from the east and north of Egypt.

For the first time, Ethiopia is able to combine the geographic power derived from its location as an upstream country and the material power of sustained economic growth that allowed it to construct the GERD with no foreign funding. The GERD will increase electricity coverage in Ethiopia and power exports to neighboring countries, to position the country as a power hub in Africa, and to change the image of Ethiopia as a country of famine.

The GERD is a ‘game-changer’ that challenges Egypt’s long-standing hegemony over the Nile basin. It heralded the transformation of Ethiopia’s counter-hegemonic policy from the reactive diplomacy of occasional contestation of Egypt’s Nile policy to proactive diplomacy that creates new facts on the ground.  It also reflects the shifting balance of power in upstream-downstream relations.

Ethiopia based on its current position should not negotiate on any issue with regards to the GERD, but it has to raise the issue of equitable and reasonable share of the Nile water among the basin countries. All its diplomatic and negotiation efforts have to be far ahead and gear towards equitable and reasonable share of the Nile water. Ethiopia should not waste its time and diplomatic effort on the issue of GERD which is being used by Egypt to shadow the big picture of the CFA and equitable share of the Nile water.

Thus in this connection, all Ethiopians have to stand together against the Egypt’s shameful view “natural and historical rights”. Ethiopians have to stand together for the right of Ethiopia to develop its water resources for the well-being of its citizens and to focus in fulfilling its national interest till the fact on the ground brings Egypt back to the win-win negotiation table in order to finalize the signing of May 14, 2010 the CFA Entebbe Agreement. 

We Ethiopians collectively have to focus on completing the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. All technical, political and diplomatic efforts aggressively have to be carried out in parallel to bring back Egypt to CFA table.

As the late former prime mister, Meles Zenawi said that the way forward is not for Egypt to try and stop the unstoppable. Prime Minister Dr. Abiy also said that "no force" could stop Ethiopia from building the dam.

We again confirm that Ethiopia is determined to eradicate povertyCenturies of impoverishment curtailed our development and restricted us from exercising our right to use the resources of our own rivers. Egypt has to be aware and acknowledge that the way forward is to seek for a win-win solution for an equitable and reasonable share of the Nile WaterEthiopia will be using the Nile in a “responsible and sustainable way” that does not contravene the development interests and needs of other riparian states.

For additional details please read the main article of April 2020 by the same authors under the title of:

 

THE EASTERN NILE BASIN AND THE GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM (GERD)

A ‘GAME CHANGER’ AND A PILLAR FOR THE ETHIOPIAN UNITY

 

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Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of EIPSA. 

 



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Article | by Dr. Radut